Stumbled into an interesting article about users and their behavior. It looks like the future will probably be not that different since our current behavior dictate what tools and devices are going to proliferate in the next decade. With that in mind, I might as well hope things will improve incrementally toward the common good.
Does that mean the gap between Unix and Windows will widen enough to create a set of reality for each? Will users be forced to choose between Unix and Windows way of doing things? The answer might be found in the Paradox of the Active User, IMO.
With the emergence of a global network known as the internet, users who were disconnected before, or as I might say marooned on an island, suddenly became connected by a bridge called the internet. Resulting in the emergence of a conflict between differing standards. Things like keystroke and mouse behavior suddenly became an issue. Each camp with its own way of performing a task are now going head-to-head against the other. It looks like a huge battle is raging, actually it is, with no clear winner in sight.
Will this battle rage until a single standard emerge? From the looks of it, I think the winner will be the one with the most soldiers (users that is). The statement below show Windows users outnumbering Unix.
One key finding: Since similar research was conducted in October 1994, Windows has replaced Unix as the predominant computer operating system for those browsing the Web. [2]Would new tools coming from a minority camp enough to change the Windows population, significantly increasing the Unix side? I don't think that is possible given the human irrational behavior. So, the word compromise comes to mind here as stated by a Unix HCI expert from SUN.
So what do we expect our future user population to look like? Probably some mixture of both types of user, plus a few complete novices who will start computing with GNOME. Will the mix be biased in one direction? If we have our way, yes, computer users worldwide will abandon Microsoft wholesale and take up GNOME instead. But realistically it will probably be a slow ramp, with the percentage of Windows users growing gradually. Given that there really is UNIX under the covers, and the various UNIX tools are probably not going to evolve towards the Windows keybindings, I would recommend that we compromise.Again, the Paradox clearly asserting itself in this situation where new tools must follow old ways.
[3]
A lot has been happening around this issue. One being how these differences can be reconciled in one package. But it seemed these efforts are being met by strong criticisms. Statements made by this one clearly say how some developments in Linux are misdirected.
The great irony is that just as Microsoft is bolting on more and more network features onto it's paper-centric PC system, the Unix world, which has already figured out how to operate in a networked environment has forgotten its heritage and is struggling to recreate the tired old desktop suite on Linux. While Linux may need the equivelent of Word to grow in today's desktop market, it's ludicrous for them to forget all the tools needed to operate in a networked environment. Unix users have already done all the intellectual heavy lifting in this area, and should port that thinking to the GUI instead of creating shadows of paper-era applications. [4]Personally, I think the last comment missed something and I will not mention them here, though there are grains of truth in there as well.
While it is true both camps are slugging it out, they both seem to be going on the same direction. Could it be possible the path to the destination has already been taken by the MAC-OS? I don't know, I never had a Mac in my life and won't be having anytime soon though. Maybe they already did?
To arrive at a conclusion, several points come to mind:
- Produce imitations of popular tools.
- Eliminate documentation by making applications user- friendly.
- Wrap tools in a standardized way, like adoption of CUA
- Literally produce a tool any 7 year old can instantly use.
Winterspeak.com
Here's another place I stumbled into. Zimran's views seems to be mainstream except for some items that I consider "radical." While I don't mind some of his views, I do find some of his claims somehow lacking strong support.
401K
Looking from here, it looks like I can finally say I was right to move all of them out from the aggresive growth into the stable category. Next step is figure out when is the right time to get aggressive again.
The Changing Face Of Capitalism
Been theorizing lately about how capitalism will be undermined and re-tooled to fit the next global economic step. Currently collecting information, nothing conclusive so far. I'm hoping the end result of this research turns out well.