19 Aug 2002 Bram   » (Master)

barryb: Those numbers were derived by plugging in Raph's formula -

  • log(.01) - log(1 - .01) = -4.6
  • log(.99) - log(1 - .99) = 4.6
  • log(.2) - log(1 - .2) = -1.4
  • log(.9) - log(1 - .9) = 2.2

The formulas for probabilities were likewise converted -

log(a / (a + b)) - log(1 - (a / (a + b))) = log(a) - log(b)

Note how much simpler the formula on the right is. I think it's best to think of this heuristic as based on scores, with bayesian analysis being an intuitive motivation, rather than a rigorous basis.

ifile is a noteworthy related project.

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